Research Group on 'Global Issues' FY2021－# 3

"Research Reports" are compiled by participants in research groups set up at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, and are designed to disseminate, in a timely fashion, the content of presentations made at research group meetings or analyses of current affairs. The "Research Reports" represent their authors' views. In addition to these "Research Reports", individual research groups will publish "Research Bulletins" covering the full range of the group's research themes.

Introduction

Aging societies and global warming are two major global issues. The next challenge facing mankind in the post-pandemic era will be that of aging societies. In the future, such aging is expected to progress worldwide to include emerging and developing countries. In addition to many developed countries, China and ASEAN countries are already experiencing a wave of aging. South Korea and Singapore are predicted to age faster than Japan, while China, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand have already joined the ranks of "aging societies," meaning that elderly persons aged 65 or older make up more than 7% of the total population.[*]¹ According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's population aging rate is 13.5%, so the country will soon become an "aged society" in which the ratio of the elderly over 65 years old exceeds 14%. Japan reached an aging rate of 29.1% in 2021, and it has long been a super-aging society with an aging rate over 21%. Japan's status is projected to remain unchanged until about 2045.

As it becomes the world's first super-aged society, Japan is setting an important precedent by pursuing digital transformation (DX) for a super-aged society and making a rapid shift to a digital society in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Japan's experience will offer important suggestions to other countries that will become super-aged societies in future.

Promotion and Background of DX

There are two factors that make DX indispensable in Japan.

The first is rapid demographic change. The years 2025, in which addressing the medical treatment and nursing needs of a baby boomer generation turning 75 years old and older will become concerning, and 2040, in which the baby boomer junior generation becomes over 65-year-olds, are rapidly approaching. Local governments need to accelerate DX to maintain platforms that can continue to provide adequate services to residents in a sustainable manner.

The second is the delay in achieving a digital society that has been exposed by the spread of COVID-19. The structural weaknesses of government administration have become clear due to the pandemic, such as sectionalism in administrative functions, separation between electronic government functions at the national and local levels, and digital disparities among municipalities.

Therefore, the important question of "how should Japan promote DX across society as a whole in the future?" arises. This paper will examine the issue based on the United Nations SDGs forums held on four occasions by Waseda University's Institute of Digital Government and the result of Waseda University International Digital Government Rankings stemming from 16 years of research.

UN Activities: A Society that Leaves No One Left Behind and the Challenge of Digital Government

As shown in Table 1 below, the Institute of Digital Government at Waseda University has cooperated with the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA) on digital government and aging society research.

Table 1. Seminars at the United Nations Headquarters in New York

Source: Institute of Digital Government, Waseda University.

The United Nations Forum is co-hosted by Waseda University, APEC, the UN-DESA Focal Point on Aging, the NGO Committee on Ageing and others, and supported by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

The theme of the first event was aging societies and ICT. The "Silver Tsunami" will arrive in 2060, when 27% of the world's population will be elderly. The employment of one billion 60- to 75-year-old active seniors will be necessary in 2050, and the requirements for a new work style utilizing ICT were discussed, with the key issue being how to construct smart and resilient societies for the aged.

The author made the following point: "In Japan, nursing and childcare demand is on the rise even as the birth rate is falling, the society is super-aging, and the population is declining. In the process of expanding employment opportunities for women, it is important to discuss a desirable work-life balance for working women." Though a discussion of AI was premature for many developing UN members which could not afford sufficient ICT infrastructure, major progress was made the following year with the release of a report on the elderly and AI by a UN NGO. Motohide Yoshikawa, who fully cooperated with us at the time in his capacity as Permanent Representative of Japan to the United Nations, expressed his appreciation after the meeting that serious discussions were held on global trends and issues, focusing on the current situation, issues, and solutions for Japan's super-aged society, and that interest at the United Nations had further increased.

What should be noted in the second seminar was the participation of Bradley Schurman, at the time Director for Global Partnerships at the 20-million-strong American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), who explained active and independent living as an example the impacts of digital technology on the lifestyles of the elderly, based on the "Aging Readiness & Competitiveness Report" released by AARP. Toshiya Hoshino, then Japan's ambassador to the UN and participated in the seminar, stated, "With the global elderly population expected to double by 2050, our country aims to promote cooperation at the United Nations". Rosemary Lane, then Focal Point on Ageing in the UN-DESA's Division for Social Policy and Development, noted that "Securing ICT connectivity is one of the issues focused on in SDGs 2030, and governments need to make further efforts".

In the third seminar, the digital dwelling environments of the elderly and other vulnerable groups were discussed under the theme of "smart cities", an idea gaining traction worldwide. Discussions on the importance of technologies such as IoT, big data, AI and 5G in aging societies were also significant for countries facing aging societies in future. Ambassador Hoshino, participating in the seminar for the second time, said, "Smart homes and smart cities are timely topics, and it would be meaningful for super-aging Japan to lead the world in pursuing more in-depth discussions".

The COVID-19 pandemic meant that the fourth seminar was held online amongst the participating countries rather than at the UN Headquarters. It was recognized as a particularly meaningful forum among the United Nations SDGs participation projects, and records of the proceedings were posted on the United Nations website after the event. [*]² With the importance of digital technology being recognized anew by the COVID-19 pandemic, the discussions looked at the necessity of making a cross-function paradigm shift in digital technology to achieve the United Nations SDGs. World-renowned experts from Japan, the US, China, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Russia gathered to present policy proposals for resolving international social problems by utilizing the lessons learned during the coronavirus pandemic and the knowledge possessed by individual countries.

Through these activities at the United Nations, discussions have been underway for several years on finding solutions to the problems of aging in member countries. One conclusion that has been reached is that the utilization of digital technology offers useful solutions to various problems confronting aging societies, giving a real feel to the enormity of expectations toward Japan, which is at the forefront in the area of aging worldwide.

Latest Analysis of Waseda University's International Digital Government Rankings

The Institute of Digital Government at Waseda University surveys and analyzes the progress of digital government across the world every year. The Institute announced the results of the 16th Waseda University International Digital Government Rankings in December 2021. [*]³ It is essential that digital government, which serves as a catalyst for administrative and fiscal reform, significantly reduce costs and contribute to the government's DX. Full-scale promotion and development of digital government is indispensable as a base point for economic growth, innovation strategy and greater international competitiveness.

This research covers 64 advanced ICT countries and evaluates and explains the progress of digital government in terms of 10 main indicators, resulting in comprehensive and sector-specific rankings and their historical trends. In addition to this institute, the United Nations also ranks the digital governments of UN member states on the basis of three indicators every two years.

The Waseda University International Digital Government Rankings are based on a comprehensive analysis of 10 benchmark indicators to provide a detailed and accurate assessment of the latest digital government trends in the ICT sector in all target countries. The 10 survey items are as follows: (1) network infrastructure, (2) contributions to administrative and fiscal reforms, (3) progress of various online application services, (4) convenience of websites and portal sites, (5) government CIO (Chief Information Officer) activities, (6) e-government strategies and promotion measures, (7) enrichment of citizens' participation in government by ICT, (8) open government, (9) cyber-security, and (10) utilization of advanced ICT.

According to the latest survey results, digital responses to the COVID-19 pandemic greatly affected the rankings. The top five ranking countries, in order, were Denmark, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada. Japan dropped two spots from seventh to ninth.

Table 2. The 16th Waseda University International Digital Government Rankings 2021