The 4th Tokyo Global Dialogue

The 4th Tokyo Global Dialogue - Program

The End of the “post-Cold War” Era
and the Future of the US-led International Order

Hosted by The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) online

February 20-21, 2023

2/20 Mon

18：00-19：00	Opening Welcoming Remarks Kenichiro Sasae President, The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) Remarks H.E. KISHIDA Fumio Prime Minister of Japan Speech H.E. HAYASHI Yoshimasa Minister for Foreign Affairs

19:15-21:00	Roundtable Featuring "Strategic Annual Report 2022" Russia's invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally overturned the European security order, and the "post-Cold War" era has come to an end. In the Indo-Pacific region, tensions between the US and China increased in 2022, especially over Taiwan, and there is no near-term prospect of a significant easing of tensions. Russia and China have strengthened their ties, and the confrontation with the West, that of democracy versus authoritarianism, or the "new Cold War" as it is also called, is splitting the world into blocs. International cooperation through multilateral frameworks is in a crisis, and countries in the Global South most affected by the food and energy crises face the challenge of securing their national interests in a destabilizing international order. Against this backdrop, Japan has reviewed its national security strategy and decided to strengthen its defense capabilities. The current international situation, which provides premises for considering the future of the US-led international order and Japan's response, will be discussed from a broad perspective following an introduction of the "Strategic Annual Report 2022." 【Speakers】 Lisa Curtis Senior Fellow and Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security (CNAS) 紹介文 Bill Emmott Chairman of the Trustees, The Institute for International Strategic Studies (IISS) 紹介文 Bilahari Kausikan Chairman, The Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore, Former Ambassador-at-Large 紹介文 Ryosei Kokubun Professor Emeritus, Keio University 紹介文 Zhiqin Shi Professor, Tsinghua University; Executive Dean, Institute of the Belt and Road Initiative 紹介文【Moderator】 Kenichiro Sasae President, The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)　紹介文

19:15-21:00

Roundtable Featuring "Strategic Annual Report 2022"

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally overturned the European security order, and the "post-Cold War" era has come to an end. In the Indo-Pacific region, tensions between the US and China increased in 2022, especially over Taiwan, and there is no near-term prospect of a significant easing of tensions. Russia and China have strengthened their ties, and the confrontation with the West, that of democracy versus authoritarianism, or the "new Cold War" as it is also called, is splitting the world into blocs. International cooperation through multilateral frameworks is in a crisis, and countries in the Global South most affected by the food and energy crises face the challenge of securing their national interests in a destabilizing international order. Against this backdrop, Japan has reviewed its national security strategy and decided to strengthen its defense capabilities.
The current international situation, which provides premises for considering the future of the US-led international order and Japan's response, will be discussed from a broad perspective following an introduction of the "Strategic Annual Report 2022."

【Speakers】

Lisa Curtis Senior Fellow and Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

紹介文

Bill Emmott Chairman of the Trustees, The Institute for International Strategic Studies (IISS)

紹介文

Bilahari Kausikan Chairman, The Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore, Former Ambassador-at-Large

紹介文

Ryosei Kokubun Professor Emeritus, Keio University

紹介文

Zhiqin Shi Professor, Tsinghua University; Executive Dean, Institute of the Belt and Road Initiative

紹介文

【Moderator】

Kenichiro Sasae President, The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)

紹介文

2/21 tue

【Part 1】 US-China Competition and the Indo-Pacific region

9:00-10:30	(1) Politics and Security The continuing competitive and confrontational US-China relationship has increased its tenseness in 2022, especially over Taiwan, and there is no prospect for a fundamental easing of tensions. China continues to expand its military power and influence, and the US, while viewing China as its most important strategic competitor, also seeks to manage US-China relations. The US and China also contest with each other over ASEAN countries and Pacific island countries. Meanwhile, North Korea has accelerated its missile development, further increasing its threat to the region and the international community. The diplomatic and security strategies of the US and China in the Indo-Pacific region, the future of US-China relations and regional security, and the views and policies of regional countries, including Japan, will be discussed. 【Speakers】 Shiming Fan Professor; Executive Vice Dean of Yenching Academy, Peking University 紹介文 Bilahari Kausikan Chairman, The Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore, Former Ambassador-at-Large 紹介文 Tsutomu Kikuchi Professor Emeritus, Aoyama Gakuin University, Senior Adjunct Fellow, JIIA 紹介文 Choongmyon Lee President, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), Korea National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA) 紹介文 Susan A. Thornton Director, Forum on Asia-Pacific Security, National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP) 紹介文【Moderator】 Fumiaki Kubo President, National Defense Academy of Japan, Senior Adjunct Fellow, JIIA 紹介文

9:00-10:30

(1) Politics and Security

The continuing competitive and confrontational US-China relationship has increased its tenseness in 2022, especially over Taiwan, and there is no prospect for a fundamental easing of tensions. China continues to expand its military power and influence, and the US, while viewing China as its most important strategic competitor, also seeks to manage US-China relations. The US and China also contest with each other over ASEAN countries and Pacific island countries. Meanwhile, North Korea has accelerated its missile development, further increasing its threat to the region and the international community.
The diplomatic and security strategies of the US and China in the Indo-Pacific region, the future of US-China relations and regional security, and the views and policies of regional countries, including Japan, will be discussed.

【Speakers】

Shiming Fan Professor; Executive Vice Dean of Yenching Academy, Peking University

紹介文

Bilahari Kausikan Chairman, The Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore, Former Ambassador-at-Large

紹介文

Tsutomu Kikuchi Professor Emeritus, Aoyama Gakuin University, Senior Adjunct Fellow, JIIA

紹介文

Choongmyon Lee President, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), Korea National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA)

紹介文

Susan A. Thornton Director, Forum on Asia-Pacific Security, National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP)

紹介文

【Moderator】

Fumiaki Kubo President, National Defense Academy of Japan, Senior Adjunct Fellow, JIIA

紹介文

10:45-12:15	(2) Economy Globalization based on international economic interdependence is subject to reassessment, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the intensifying US-China competition. Countries are pursuing efforts to secure stable supply of critical materials through strengthening of supply chain resilience and promoting collaboration with allies and partners on advanced technologies. At the same time, a free and open trade regime and economic interdependence continue to be necessary for regional development. The impact of the US-China competition over economic security on the economic and trade regimes in the Indo-Pacific region, its prospects, and the policies of various countries, including Japan, will be discussed. 【Speakers】 Shiro Armstrong Associate Professor, Australian National University 紹介文 Emily Benson Senior Fellow, Scholl Chair in International Business, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 紹介文 Hideaki Shiroyama Professor, University of Tokyo 紹介文 Vo Tri Thanh Senior Expert, Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM) 紹介文 Zhang Yunling Academy Member of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)/ Chair Professor; President of Institute for International Studies, Shandong University 紹介文【Moderator】 Yukiko Fukagawa Professor, Waseda University 紹介文

10:45-12:15

(2) Economy

Globalization based on international economic interdependence is subject to reassessment, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the intensifying US-China competition. Countries are pursuing efforts to secure stable supply of critical materials through strengthening of supply chain resilience and promoting collaboration with allies and partners on advanced technologies. At the same time, a free and open trade regime and economic interdependence continue to be necessary for regional development.
The impact of the US-China competition over economic security on the economic and trade regimes in the Indo-Pacific region, its prospects, and the policies of various countries, including Japan, will be discussed.

【Speakers】

Shiro Armstrong Associate Professor, Australian National University

紹介文

Emily Benson Senior Fellow, Scholl Chair in International Business, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

紹介文

Hideaki Shiroyama Professor, University of Tokyo

紹介文

Vo Tri Thanh Senior Expert, Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM)

紹介文

Zhang Yunling Academy Member of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)/ Chair Professor; President of Institute for International Studies, Shandong University

紹介文

【Moderator】

Yukiko Fukagawa Professor, Waseda University

紹介文

12:30-13:30	Special Session: Maritime Security around Japan During China's military exercises around Taiwan in August 2022, missiles landed within Japan's exclusive economic zone and at a point not far from Yonaguni Island in Okinawa Prefecture. The degree of Chinese provocation in the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands has increased over the years, and deepening of cooperation between the Chinese and Russian militaries around Japan has been confirmed in recent years. An evaluation of Japan's policies to strengthen its defense and maritime security capabilities under these circumstances, as well as its future challenges, will be discussed, taking into account the current situation and outlook for maritime security around Japan. 【Speakers】 Lisa Curtis Senior Fellow and Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security (CNAS) 紹介文 Lai I-Chung President, The Prospect Foundation 紹介文 Tomohisa Takei Special advisor to the CEO, SAMPA K.K., Adjunct Fellow, JIIA, Former Chief of Staff, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force 紹介文【Moderator】 Tetsuo Kotani Senior Fellow, The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), Professor, Meikai University 紹介文

12:30-13:30

Special Session: Maritime Security around Japan

During China's military exercises around Taiwan in August 2022, missiles landed within Japan's exclusive economic zone and at a point not far from Yonaguni Island in Okinawa Prefecture. The degree of Chinese provocation in the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands has increased over the years, and deepening of cooperation between the Chinese and Russian militaries around Japan has been confirmed in recent years.
An evaluation of Japan's policies to strengthen its defense and maritime security capabilities under these circumstances, as well as its future challenges, will be discussed, taking into account the current situation and outlook for maritime security around Japan.

【Speakers】

Lisa Curtis Senior Fellow and Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

紹介文

Lai I-Chung President, The Prospect Foundation

紹介文

Tomohisa Takei Special advisor to the CEO, SAMPA K.K., Adjunct Fellow, JIIA, Former Chief of Staff, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force

紹介文

【Moderator】

Tetsuo Kotani Senior Fellow, The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), Professor, Meikai University

紹介文

【Part 2】 Impact of the War in Ukraine

15:00-16:30	(1) Politics and Security Russia's invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally overturned the European security order, and its nuclear intimidation has raised concerns about the possible use of nuclear weapons in the international community. Western countries, including Japan, have implemented unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine based on the determination to uphold the principle that the change of status quo by force must not be allowed, and many countries have changed their security policies. However, with no clear path to an end to the war, the sustainability of Western countries' support for Ukraine and the resilience of democracy are being tested. Discussion will be held on the impact of the war in Ukraine on European and global security, prospects for the conflict, and the future of security in Europe and the policies of various countries. 【Speakers】 Bill Emmott Chairman of the Trustees, The Institute for International Strategic Studies (IISS) 紹介文 Shinji Hyodo Director, Policy Studies Department, The National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS) 紹介文 Sergiy Korsunsky Ambassador of Ukraine to Japan 紹介文 Andrey Kortunov Director General, The Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) 紹介文 Ian Lesser Vice President and Executive Director, Brussels, The German Marshall Fund of the United States 紹介文 Hemant Krishan Singh Director General, The Delhi Policy Group (DPG), Former Ambassador of India to Japan 紹介文【Moderator】 Ken Endo Professor, University of Tokyo, Adjunct Fellow, JIIA 紹介文

15:00-16:30

(1) Politics and Security

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally overturned the European security order, and its nuclear intimidation has raised concerns about the possible use of nuclear weapons in the international community. Western countries, including Japan, have implemented unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine based on the determination to uphold the principle that the change of status quo by force must not be allowed, and many countries have changed their security policies. However, with no clear path to an end to the war, the sustainability of Western countries' support for Ukraine and the resilience of democracy are being tested.
Discussion will be held on the impact of the war in Ukraine on European and global security, prospects for the conflict, and the future of security in Europe and the policies of various countries.

【Speakers】

Bill Emmott Chairman of the Trustees, The Institute for International Strategic Studies (IISS)

紹介文

Shinji Hyodo Director, Policy Studies Department, The National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS)

紹介文

Sergiy Korsunsky Ambassador of Ukraine to Japan

紹介文

Andrey Kortunov Director General, The Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)

紹介文

Ian Lesser Vice President and Executive Director, Brussels, The German Marshall Fund of the United States

紹介文

Hemant Krishan Singh Director General, The Delhi Policy Group (DPG), Former Ambassador of India to Japan

紹介文

【Moderator】

Ken Endo Professor, University of Tokyo, Adjunct Fellow, JIIA

紹介文

16:45-18:15	(2) Economy Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused global supply instability and price hikes for resources such as energy and food. Countries in the Global South, including those in the Middle East and Africa that have been dependent on Russia and Ukraine for grain imports, have been particularly affected, and a dark shadow is cast over their domestic politics and the future of the global economy. The EU, faced with soaring energy and food prices, trade deficits, a weak euro, and a gas crisis, is trying to accelerate the Green Transition. The impact of the war in Ukraine on the international economy and its prospects, and the responses of international organizations and countries/regions will be discussed with a focus on food and energy. 【Speakers】 Yose Rizal Damuri Executive Director, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 紹介文 Tim Gould Chief Energy Economist, International Energy Agency (IEA) 紹介文 Stephen Quest Director-General, Joint Research Center(JRC), European Commission 紹介文 Ruan Wei Research Counselor, Norinchukin Research Institute Co., Ltd. 紹介文 Maha Yahya Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center 紹介文【Moderator】 Kiyotaka Akasaka President, The Nippon Communications Foundation, Former United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Communication and Public Information 紹介文

16:45-18:15

(2) Economy

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused global supply instability and price hikes for resources such as energy and food. Countries in the Global South, including those in the Middle East and Africa that have been dependent on Russia and Ukraine for grain imports, have been particularly affected, and a dark shadow is cast over their domestic politics and the future of the global economy. The EU, faced with soaring energy and food prices, trade deficits, a weak euro, and a gas crisis, is trying to accelerate the Green Transition.
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the international economy and its prospects, and the responses of international organizations and countries/regions will be discussed with a focus on food and energy.

【Speakers】

Yose Rizal Damuri Executive Director, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

紹介文

Tim Gould Chief Energy Economist, International Energy Agency (IEA)

紹介文

Stephen Quest Director-General, Joint Research Center(JRC), European Commission

紹介文

Ruan Wei Research Counselor, Norinchukin Research Institute Co., Ltd.

紹介文

Maha Yahya Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

紹介文

【Moderator】

Kiyotaka Akasaka President, The Nippon Communications Foundation, Former United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Communication and Public Information

紹介文

【Part 3】 The Future of the US-led International Order

18:30-20:00	The Future of the US-led International Order As the "post-Cold War" era comes to an end, the continuation of a stable international order can no longer be taken for granted, and each country faces the challenge of securing their own peace and national interests in an uncertain international situation. Multilateral cooperation is in a crisis, and concerns about the possible use of nuclear weapons are growing. Food and energy crises cast a dark shadow over the economic growth in the Global South and countries beyond. Amid the splitting of the world into blocs called a "new Cold War," where will the US-led international order, which symbolized the "post-Cold War" era, be going? Is a rules-based free and open international order sustainable? Based on the current status and outlook of the international situation, the future of the US-led international order, Japan's response that made a major shift in its security policy, and Japan's role as it holds the presidency of the G7 in 2023 will be discussed from a broad perspective. 【Speakers】 Michael Green Professor and CEO, US Studies Centre, The University of Sydney 紹介文 Qingguo Jia Professor, Peking University 紹介文 Sunjoy Joshi Chairman, Observer Research Foundation (ORF) 紹介文 Rory Medcalf Head of College, National Security College, Australian National University 紹介文 Thierry de Montbrial Executive Chairman, French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) 紹介文 Kenichiro Sasae President, The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) 紹介文【Moderator】 Tomiko Ichikawa Director General, The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) 紹介文

18:30-20:00

The Future of the US-led International Order

As the "post-Cold War" era comes to an end, the continuation of a stable international order can no longer be taken for granted, and each country faces the challenge of securing their own peace and national interests in an uncertain international situation. Multilateral cooperation is in a crisis, and concerns about the possible use of nuclear weapons are growing. Food and energy crises cast a dark shadow over the economic growth in the Global South and countries beyond. Amid the splitting of the world into blocs called a "new Cold War," where will the US-led international order, which symbolized the "post-Cold War" era, be going? Is a rules-based free and open international order sustainable?
Based on the current status and outlook of the international situation, the future of the US-led international order, Japan's response that made a major shift in its security policy, and Japan's role as it holds the presidency of the G7 in 2023 will be discussed from a broad perspective.

【Speakers】

Michael Green Professor and CEO, US Studies Centre, The University of Sydney

紹介文

Qingguo Jia Professor, Peking University

紹介文

Sunjoy Joshi Chairman, Observer Research Foundation (ORF)

紹介文

Rory Medcalf Head of College, National Security College, Australian National University

紹介文

Thierry de Montbrial Executive Chairman, French Institute of International Relations (IFRI)

紹介文

Kenichiro Sasae President, The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)

紹介文

【Moderator】

Tomiko Ichikawa Director General, The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)

紹介文

20:00-20:15	Closing Closing Remarks Kenichiro Sasae President, The Japan Institute of International Affairs（JIIA）